Recent weeks have seen a spate of street protests and demonstrations in a wide range of countries, motivated by an even wider range of economic and political issues. Our system has tracked and integrated these developments into a number of our risk indicators, updating our projections for Social Instability Risk in each country we cover. The figure below summarizes the expected change in Social Instability Risk for the next week, with red dots indicating increasing risk and green dots showing decreasing risk. Note that the level of risk in each country is not represented here, only the expected change.
In sum, we forecast:
- A high risk of renewed social unrest in Ecuador despite the recent deal between the Moreno government and indigenous groups.
- Continued unrest in Santiago, Chile, where protests over economic inequality have turned increasingly violent.
- Growing social polarization in Canada after a historically divisive and closely-fought election (though the risk of Ecuador/Chile style unrest remains very low).
- A higher risk of social unrest in Turkey, especially in the Kurdish southeast.
- Persistent social instability risk in Lebanon—although a large escalation of current anti-government and anti-corruption protests looks unlikely.
- Higher potential for social unrest in Argentina surrounding the country’s 27 Oct national elections.
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